The Reserve Bank of India's central board of directors have approved a record surplus transfer of ₹2.69 lakh crores to the Union government for the accounting year 2024-25, a move economists say will ease the centre's fiscal position, and should also provide a buffer, in case of a shortfall in disinvestment or tax receipts.
The ₹2.69-lakh-crore surplus transfer by the RBI to the government for 2024-25 will be higher than last year's figure of ₹2.1 lakh crores. It is also ₹0.4-0.5 lakh crores higher than the amount that was likely assumed in the 2025-26 Union Budget, according to Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head of research at the ICRA.
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This inplies an "equivalent upside to non-tax revenues, which would provide some buffer to make up for a miss in taxes or disinvestment receipts, or higher-than-budgeted expenditure in the fiscal," she said.
This surplus payout is driven by robust gross dollar sales, higher foreign exchange gains, and steady increases in interest income, explained Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor at the State Bank of India.
"We expect fiscal deficit to ease by 20 bps from the budgeted level to 4.2 per cent of GDP. Alternatively, it will open up for additional spending for around ₹70,000 crores, other things remaining unchanged," Ghosh opined.
While the RBI board approved a higher surplus payout to the government, it also decided to increase the capital risk buffer (CRB) to 7.50%, from 6.50% in 2023-24 and 6% in 2022-23, which Ghosh stated was a "prudent move".
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"The transferable surplus for the year has been arrived at on the basis of the revised Economic Capital Framework, as approved by the Central Board in its meeting held on May 15, 2025. The revised framework stipulates that the risk provisioning under the CRB be maintained within a range of 7.50 to 4.50 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet," RBI said in its statement.
Madan Sabnavis, the chief economist at Bank of Baroda said that in these uncertain times, it was "very prudent" to keep those buffers.
"The same kind of revenue may not always be expected in future and hence cannot be called a new normal, as forex sales may not be as large as this year, but on the other hand, if buffers are lowered when conditions are normal, then there could be earnings from this side," he said.
